The summer heat is coming, and it's going to be a scorcher. Environment Canada's three-month forecast predicts a hot and humid season across the country, with temperatures exceeding averages in many regions. This prediction comes after a particularly cold and snowy winter, which has left many Canadians wondering if the weather will ever warm up.
The strongest warm signals are found in British Columbia, Yukon, along the mainland portions of the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, the northern parts of the prairies, as well as Atlantic Canada. However, Jennifer Smith, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), notes that while the hot weather is a trend, there will still be pockets of cooler air across the country.
Some parts of Canada are already experiencing warmer weather, with southern Ontario, including Ottawa and Toronto, seeing temperatures in the high 20s pushing 30 C. Peter Quinlan, a meteorologist with Global News, notes that the seasonal high for this time of year in Toronto is 23 C, and that the city is currently above that mark right through the next week.
The above-average temperatures are being driven by a number of factors, but the most significant two are climate change and El Niño. Nathan Gillett, a research scientist with ECCC, notes that average summer temperatures have risen 1.65 C in Canada since 1948, and that Canada is warming at nearly twice the global rate.
Climate change also increases the possibility for extreme heat days, which are defined as temperatures reaching or exceeding 31 C or the humidex exceeding 40 for two or more days. This year is also expected to develop a particularly strong El Niño, which typically brings a warmer and drier winter to the Americas.
The phenomenon appears to be developing earlier this year, which could bring hotter conditions across southern Canada. Environment Canada projections also show an increased likelihood for higher than normal specific humidity, which measures the mass of water vapour in the area. Humidity can make it feel much warmer than it actually is, and can hinder the body’s ability to cool itself down.
One of the biggest concerns this summer is that there may not be as much relief with nighttime temperatures. Regions closer to bodies of water, namely southern Ontario and Quebec and Atlantic Canada, typically experience higher humidex levels. Environment Canada modelling shows an anomaly in B.C., where the area can expect more moisture in the air, making it feel sticky.
Levels of precipitation are a bit more unpredictable this summer, with ECCC data showing a likelihood for a drier than normal summer in some parts of the country. Victoria, Vancouver and Prince George in the west, as well as Halifax and St. John’s in the Maritimes, Thunder Bay, Ont. and Whitehorse, Yukon are trending drier for much of the summer.
Southwestern Ontario, a hotspot for thunderstorms and even tornadoes, could still expect extreme weather, as a result of cold fronts sweeping in across the Great Lakes. Drier weather can also contribute to a more robust wildfire season, with B.C. experiencing the “highest and most sustained” risk this wildfire season.
In conclusion, Environment Canada's prediction of a hot and humid summer is a cause for concern, particularly given the ongoing impacts of climate change and El Niño. As Canadians, we must take steps to prepare for the heat and humidity, and to mitigate the risks associated with extreme weather events.
