The Mariners' eight-game win streak has come to an abrupt halt, and the blame falls squarely on George Kirby's shoulders. The once-promising starter, who was favored to earn an All-Star bid, has seen his ERA skyrocket from 2.84 to 4.04 over his past four starts. This sudden decline has been a result of a combination of factors, including high-contact grind and untidy plays in the field.
One thing that immediately stands out is the volume of contact Kirby has been facing. While it's not necessarily the hard contact that's been a problem, the sheer number of hits he's allowed has been a significant issue. Of the nine hits he surrendered, eight were singles, and the lone outlier was a double that came amid a brutal break. This raises a deeper question: how can a pitcher with such a high ERA have given up so few home runs?
In my opinion, the answer lies in the fact that opposing batters are still hitting .330 with an .870 OPS against him over 96 plate appearances. This suggests that while Kirby may not be giving up home runs, he's still allowing batters to make solid contact and get hits. The defensive lapses that compounded behind Kirby didn't help matters, but the bigger issue has been falling behind early in counts, which throws off the rest of the at-bat.
What many people don't realize is that Kirby's struggles are not isolated to his recent starts. His 19.7% K rate and 20.7% whiff rate entering Wednesday were on pace for career lows, indicating that he's been struggling to get batters out even when they do swing at the ball. This raises a deeper question: how can a pitcher with such a low strikeout rate have a high ERA?
If you take a step back and think about it, the answer becomes clear. While Kirby may not be an elite strikeout artist, he's still relying on his ability to get batters out through swing-and-miss. However, with batters hitting the ball harder and more frequently, he's been unable to match his previous success. This raises a deeper question: how can a pitcher adapt to a changing game where batters are hitting the ball harder and more frequently?
Personally, I think the answer lies in finding ways to get more swing-and-miss. Kirby needs to focus on getting ahead in the count and throwing strikes, which will allow him to get more opportunities to go for swing-and-miss. This will require a change in his approach and a willingness to adapt to the changing game. Only time will tell if he can find the answers he needs to get out of his slump.
